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Imaging of the Microstructural Failure Mechanism in the Human Hip
Published on: September 29, 2023
Predicting population level hip fracture risk: a novel hierarchical model incorporating probabilistic approaches and
Daniel R Martel1, Martin Lysy2, Andrew C Laing1
1Department of Kinesiology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Ontario, Canada.
Abstract:
Fall-related hip fractures are a major public health issue. While individual-level risk assessment tools exist, population-level predictive models could catalyze innovation in large-scale interventions. This study presents a hierarchical probabilistic model that predicts population-level hip fracture risk based on Factor of Risk (FOR) principles. Model validation demonstrated that FOR output aligned with a published dataset categorized by sex and hip fracture status. The model predicted normalized FOR for 100000 individuals simulating the Canadian older-adult population. Predicted hip fracture risk was higher for females (by an average of 38%), and increased with age (by15% per decade). Potential applications are discussed.
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