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Overrunning in clinical trials: some thoughts from a methodological review
Ileana Baldi1, Danila Azzolina1,2, Nicola Soriani1
1Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic and Vascular Sciences, University of Padua, Via Loredan 18, 35121, Padova, Italy.
Overrunning data in sequential trials can alter early study conclusions. Choosing conservative methods for including this extra data depends on trial design and endpoint type.
Area of Science:
- Clinical Trials
- Biostatistics
- Pharmaceutical Research
Background:
- Overrunning in sequential and adaptive trials refers to extra data collected after a stopping criterion is met, while awaiting interim analysis results.
- Including overrunning data is scientifically sound and aligns with regulatory guidance, but its overall impact remains unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To clarify the impact of including overrunning data in clinical trial analyses.
- To compare different methods for handling overrunning data in sequential and adaptive trials.
Main Methods:
- A literature review of approaches for treating overrunning data.
- A simulation study utilizing two real-life clinical trial examples.
Main Results:
- Inclusion of overrunning data can significantly influence decisions regarding early study termination.
- The study identified variations in the conservatism of different methods proposed for incorporating overrunning data.
Conclusions:
- The selection of a more or less conservative method for handling overrunning data should be tailored to the specific trial endpoint and design.
- Method choice impacts the interpretation of early trial conclusions when overrunning data is present.
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