Probing expert opinions on the future of kidney replacement therapies

Patients with kidney failure can only survive with some form of kidney replacement (transplant or dialysis). Unfortunately, innovations in kidney replacement therapy lag behind many other medical fields. This study compiles expert opinions on candidate technologies for future kidney replacement therapies. A worldwide web-based survey was conducted with 1566 responding experts, identified from scientific publications on kidney (renal) replacement therapy, indexed in the Web of Science Core Collection (period 2014-2019). Candidate innovative approaches were categorized in line with the Kidney Health Initiative roadmap for innovative kidney replacement therapies. Most respondents expected a revolution in kidney replacement therapies: 68.59% before 2040 and 24.85% after 2040, while 6.56% expected none. Approaches anticipated as most likely were implantable artificial kidneys (38.6%) and wearable artificial kidneys (32.4%). A majority of experts expect that kidney replacement therapies can be significantly improved by innovative technologies.