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Current European flood-rich period exceptional compared with past 500 years
Günter Blöschl1, Andrea Kiss2, Alberto Viglione3
1Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria. bloeschl@hydro.tuwien.ac.at.
Nature
|July 24, 2020
Summary
Recent decades show Europe experiencing one of the most flood-rich periods in 500 years. This current flood-rich era is warmer and has more pronounced seasonality than historical flood events.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Hydrology
Background:
- Concerns exist regarding climate change impacts on river flood frequency and magnitude.
- Historical data suggests past flood-rich periods in Europe, but long-term comparisons are limited by data resolution and series count.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare recent decades with Europe's long-term flood history.
- To determine if the current period is unprecedented in its flood richness and characteristics.
Main Methods:
- Compilation of a new database of over 100 high-resolution (sub-annual) historical flood series from documentary evidence across Europe.
- Analysis of recent decades against this 500-year flood history.
Main Results:
- The past three decades (1990-2016) represent one of Europe's most flood-rich periods in the last 500 years.
- This recent flood-rich period is distinguished by higher air temperatures and more pronounced flood seasonality compared to historical flood-rich periods.
- Nine distinct flood-rich periods and their associated regions were identified, with 1560-1580, 1760-1800, and 1840-1870 noted as significant past events.
Conclusions:
- The current flood-rich period in Europe is exceptional due to its warmer conditions and altered seasonality.
- There is a need for advanced, process-based flood-risk assessment tools and adaptive management strategies to address recent changes in flood risk.
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