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Words or numbers? Communicating probability in intelligence analysis.

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This summary is machine-generated.

Intelligence agencies should use numeric probabilities instead of words to communicate risk. Numeric probabilities offer clearer communication, reducing the chances of costly errors in decision-making.

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Science
  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Intelligence Studies

Background:

  • Intelligence analysis relies on expert judgment under uncertainty.
  • Post-2003 Iraq War, intelligence agencies adopted linguistic lexicons for probability communication.
  • These lexicons link terms (e.g., 'highly likely') to numeric ranges (e.g., 80-90%).

Purpose of the Study:

  • To review the benefits and drawbacks of using linguistic probabilities in intelligence assessments.
  • To explore the advantages of numeric probabilities over linguistic ones.
  • To recommend a shift towards numeric probability communication in intelligence.

Main Methods:

  • Review of psychological research on probability communication.
  • Analysis of studies on the effectiveness of standardized linguistic lexicons.
  • Discussion of the merits and limitations of both numeric and linguistic probability formats.

Main Results:

  • Linguistic probabilities have inherent drawbacks that are difficult to overcome.
  • Numeric probabilities, while having some challenges (e.g., numeracy), can be improved with training.
  • The benefits of numeric probabilities outweigh their drawbacks for intelligence assessment.

Conclusions:

  • The intelligence community should reconsider its reliance on linguistic probabilities.
  • Adopting numeric probabilities can mitigate risks associated with intelligence failures.
  • Findings have implications for probability communication in other fields like climate science.