Related Experiment Video
Updated: Dec 14, 2025

Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
Published on: September 19, 2012
A parallel accumulator model accounts for decision randomness when deciding on risky prospects with different
Jonathon R Howlett1, Martin P Paulus1,2
1Department of Psychiatry, University of California San Diego, La Jolla, California, United States of America.
Computational models explain why people make random choices even with the same information. The linear ballistic accumulator model accurately predicted decision-making in a task involving risk and expected value.
Area of Science:
- Cognitive Neuroscience
- Computational Psychiatry
- Decision Science
Background:
- Individuals often exhibit decisional randomness, choosing different options with identical information, a phenomenon poorly understood in psychiatric disorders.
- Computational models propose decisions arise from noisy evidence accumulation in the brain, explaining random choices.
- The linear ballistic accumulator (LBA) model posits decisions are made when evidence for an option reaches a threshold.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the mechanisms underlying decisional randomness using the LBA model.
- To apply the LBA to a decision-making task with explicit risk and expected value (EV) signals.
- To predict choice behavior based on fitted LBA parameters.
Main Methods:
- Applied the LBA model to a task where risk and EV were signaled before choice.
- Estimated separate drift rates for stimuli representing high/low EV and high/low risk.
- Used fitted LBA parameters to predict choices on unseen trials for stimulus pairs.
Main Results:
- LBA model predictions showed significant correlation with actual subject choices across all stimulus pairs.
- The model successfully accounted for decisional randomness in an explicit probabilistic task.
- Estimated drift rates varied based on task stimuli, reflecting differences in EV and risk.
Conclusions:
- Sequential sampling models, like the LBA, can explain decisional randomness in probabilistic tasks.
- Findings suggest implications for understanding decision-making in both healthy and psychiatric populations.
- The LBA provides a framework for analyzing the neural implementation of choice under uncertainty.
Related Concept Videos
Decision Making: P-value Method
First, a specific claim about the population parameter is proposed. The claim is based on the research question and is stated in a simple form. Further, an opposing statement to the claim is also stated. These statements can act as null and alternative hypotheses: a null hypothesis would be a neutral statement while the alternative hypothesis can...
Mechanistic Models: Compartment Models in Algorithms for Numerical Problem Solving
In individual population analyses, different algorithms are employed, such as Cauchy's method, which uses a...
Propagation of Uncertainty from Random Error
Expected Value
Random Variables
Uppercase letters such as X or Y denote a random variable. Lowercase letters like x or y denote the value of a random variable. If X is a random variable, then X is written in words, and x is given as a number.
For example, let X = the...
The Anchoring-and-Adjustment Heuristic

