The CELIOtomy Risk Score: An effort to minimize futile surgery with analysis of early postoperative mortality after...

Emergency surgical services often encounter patients with generalized peritonitis. Difficult perioperative decisions impact morbidity, mortality, cost, and utilization of hospital resources. The ability to preoperatively predict patient nonsurvival despite surgical intervention using clinical physiologic indicators was the aim of this study and would be helpful in counseling patients/families.

A retrospective cohort from an institutional database was queried for nontrauma patients with peritonitis undergoing emergency laparotomy from 2012 to 2016. Time to mortality after surgery was compared: early (≤72 hours) versus late (>72 hours) and no death.

After 534 emergency laparotomies, there were 74 (13.9%) mortalities. Of these, death occurred early (≤72 hours) after surgery in 28 (37.8%) patients and late (>72 hours) in 46 (62.2%). Early death patients had a significantly more deranged physiology, as evidenced by higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II scores (mean 28.1 ± 8.4 vs 22.9 ± 8.7, P = .01), worse acute kidney injury (preoperative creatinine 3.7 ± 3.2 vs 1.9 ± 1.4, P = .001), and greater level of acidosis (pH 7.19 ± 0.12 vs 7.27 ± 0.13, P = .017). Additionally, preoperative lactate was significantly increased in patients with early mortality (6.8 ± 4.1 vs 5.1 ± 4.0, P = .045). Using logarithmic regression, a nomogram was constructed using age, Glasgow Coma Scale, lactate, creatinine, and pH. This nomogram had an area under the curve of 0.908 on receiver operator curve analysis. A score of 13 equates to greater than 50% risk of early mortality after surgery.

Early mortality (≤72 hours after emergency laparotomy) is associated with decreased pH, elevated creatinine, and elevated lactate. These factors combined into the nomogram constructed may assist surgical teams with patient and family discussions to prevent futile surgical interventions.