Modeling and Dynamics Analysis of Zika Transmission with Limited Medical Resources

Zika virus, a reemerging mosquito-borne flavivirus, posed a global public health emergency in 2016. Brazil is the most seriously affected country. Some measures have been implemented to control the Zika transmission, such as spraying mosquitoes, developing vaccines and drugs. However, because of the limited medical resources (LMRs) in the country, not every infected patient can be treated in time when infected with Zika virus. We aim to build a deterministic Zika model by introducing a piecewise smooth treatment recovery rate to research the effect of LMRs on the transmission and control of Zika. For the model without treatment, we analyze the global stability of equilibria. For the model with treatment, the model exhibits complex dynamics. We prove that the model with treatment undergoes backward bifurcation, Hopf bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation of codimension 2. It means that the model with LMRs is sensitive to parameters and initial conditions, which has important significance for control of Zika. We also apply the model to estimate the basic and control reproduction numbers for the Zika transmission by using the data on weekly reported accumulated Zika cases from March 25, 2016, to April 14, 2018, in Brazil.