Hip fractures in the elderly Chilean population: a projection for 2030

Using national databases, we projected the magnitude of hip fractures among the elderly Chilean population by 2030. Hip fractures will increase by 27.5% from 2018 to 9862 cases (95% CI = 8760 to 10,965). The most substantial growth is expected to occur in patients older than 80 years of age.

There is scarce information regarding the magnitude of hip fractures that will be observed in Latin American countries in the near future. The aim of this study is to project the volume of hip fractures in the elderly Chilean population by the year 2030.

The database of the Chilean Department of Statistics and Health Information, which includes all hospital discharges within Chile, was employed to evaluate the volume of hip fractures observed from 2012 to 2018 in the elderly population (≥ 65 years old). The annual incidence was determined by combining the volume of fractures with census data. Linear regression analysis was performed to determine the projected volume of hip fractures for 2030.

For 2030, hip fractures among the elderly population are projected to grow 27.5% (R² = 0.92) to 9862 cases (95% CI = 8760 to 10,965). In the group from 65 to 79 years old, hip fractures are expected to grow 21.6% (R² = 0.87) to 3046 cases (95% CI = 2686 to 3405). In patients ≥ 80 years of age, hip fractures are expected to grow 30.1% (R² = 0.9) to 6817 cases (95% CI = 5889 to 7744).

A substantial growth in the volume of hip fractures is expected for the next decade among the elderly Chilean population, especially in patients ≥ 80 years of age. A national healthcare strategy should consider efforts to mitigate the impact of the future burden related to patients' care.