Outcome of patients with acute liver failure awaiting liver transplantation in Japan

To clarify the outcome and predictive factors in patients with acute liver failure (ALF) awaiting deceased donor liver transplantation (DDLT) in Japan.

Of the DDLT candidates in Japan between 2007 and 2016, 264 adult patients with ALF were retrospectively enrolled in this study. Factors associated with DDLT and waiting-list mortality were assessed using the Cox proportional hazard model. The DDLT and transplant-free survival probabilities were evaluated using Kaplan-Meier analysis and the log-rank test.

The waiting-list registration year after the Transplant Law revision in 2010 was a significant factor associated with DDLT. The adjusted hazard ratio indicated that DDLT probability after 2010 was four times higher than that before, and the 28-day cumulative DDLT probability was more than 35%. The median survival time of the entire cohort was 40 days. Multivariate analysis identified the following three factors associated with waiting-list mortality: age, coma grade, and international normalized ratio. The transplant-free survival probabilities were significantly stratified by the number of risks, and patients with all three risks showed extremely poor short-term prognosis (median survival time = 23 days).

The DDLT probability of ALF patients increased after the law revision in 2010; however, patients at high risk of short-term waiting-list mortality might need emergent living donor transplantation.