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Related Concept Videos

Hazard Rate01:11

Hazard Rate

320
The hazard rate, also known as the hazard function or failure rate, is a statistical measure used to describe the instantaneous rate at which an event occurs, given that the event has not yet happened. From a probabilistic perspective, it represents the likelihood that a subject will experience the event in a very small time interval, conditional on surviving up to the beginning of that interval. In terms of frequency, the hazard rate can be viewed as the ratio of the number of events to the...
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Design Example: Analyzing Capacity Contours for Flood Risk Assessment01:17

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Flood risk assessment involves careful planning and analysis to ensure the safety of communities near water retention structures. Capacity contours are a vital tool in this process, as they illustrate the potential spread of water at specific levels in a given area. In the context of building a bund across a small valley, these contours play a critical role in evaluating the safety of nearby residential areas.In this example, the bund is intended to store stormwater in the valley. The engineers...
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What is Weather?01:07

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Global Climate Change01:50

Global Climate Change

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Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
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Quantifying Heat02:46

Quantifying Heat

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Thermal Energy Microscopically, thermal energy is the kinetic energy associated with the random motion of atoms and molecules. Temperature is a quantitative measure of “hot” or “cold”, which depends on the amount of thermal energy. When the atoms and molecules in an object are moving or vibrating quickly, they have a higher average kinetic energy (KE) (or higher thermal energy), and the object is perceived as “hot”, or it is described as being at a higher temperature. When the...
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What is Climate?01:16

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Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Dec 13, 2025

A Preclinical Model of Exertional Heat Stroke in Mice
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Development of Future Heatwaves for Different Hazard Thresholds.

Martha M Vogel1, Jakob Zscheischler2,3, Erich M Fischer1

  • 1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science ETH Zurich Zurich Switzerland.

Journal of Geophysical Research. Atmospheres : JGR
|July 31, 2020
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Global warming significantly increases heatwaves when using fixed thresholds. However, relative thresholds show minimal changes, suggesting thermodynamic effects dominate future heatwave projections.

Keywords:
CMIP5adaptationclimate projectionsheatwavetemperature extremes

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Area of Science:

  • Climate Science
  • Extreme Weather Events

Background:

  • Recent heatwaves in 2018-2019 broke temperature records globally, causing widespread adverse effects.
  • Existing research on heatwaves often analyzes spatial or temporal aspects independently, neglecting their joint impact.
  • The influence of varying heatwave thresholds on their characteristics in a warming climate is under-researched.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze spatiotemporal heatwaves in global climate model simulations.
  • To investigate the sensitivity of heatwave characteristics to different hazard threshold definitions under global warming.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of three-dimensional (space-time) clusters of hot days in climate model simulations.
  • Utilized three distinct hazard thresholds: fixed, seasonally moving, and fully moving relative to future climatology.

Main Results:

  • A substantial increase in spatiotemporally contiguous heatwaves was observed using fixed thresholds with global warming.
  • Heatwave changes were less pronounced when using seasonally moving or fully moving thresholds.
  • No significant changes in magnitude, spatial extent, or duration were detected with fully moving thresholds, indicating dominant thermodynamic effects.

Conclusions:

  • Simulated future heatwave projections are highly sensitive to the chosen hazard thresholds.
  • Seasonal mean warming largely explains the warming of extremes, as shown by the similarity between seasonally and fully moving thresholds.
  • The findings underscore the importance of considering threshold sensitivity in projecting future heat-related impacts.