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A methodology for small area prevalence estimation based on survey data.

Regina Tomie Ivata Bernal1, Quéren Hapuque de Carvalho1, Jill P Pell2

  • 1Escola de Enfermagem, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais (UFMG). Departamento de Enfermagem Materno-Infantil e Saúde Pública, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil.

International Journal for Equity in Health
|August 1, 2020
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

This study developed a new method to estimate smoking prevalence in small areas of Belo Horizonte, Brazil. The findings show smoking rates declined in wealthier areas but remained high in poorer ones, highlighting health disparities.

Keywords:
Small area estimationTelephone survey

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Epidemiology
  • Health Services Research

Background:

  • Brazil lacks granular health survey data for small areas due to high costs.
  • The Health Vulnerability Index (IVS) integrates socioeconomic and environmental factors to categorize census tracts into risk areas.
  • The IVS was developed to guide health planning in Belo Horizonte by identifying population group characteristics and epidemiological inequalities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop a methodology for generating reliable tobacco smoking prevalence estimates in small geographical areas.
  • To adapt the Health Vulnerability Index (IVS) for small area estimation of smoking.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Vigitel dataset (2006-2013) and small area estimation techniques.
  • Employed indirect estimation using covariates: sanitation, housing, education, income, and social/health factors.
  • Applied post-stratification weights based on the 2010 census population aligned with the IVS.

Main Results:

  • Overall smoking prevalence in Belo Horizonte was 16.2% (2006-2009) and 14.8% (2010-2013).
  • Very high-risk areas consistently showed high smoking prevalence (21.1% and 20.8% respectively).
  • Low-risk areas saw a decrease in smoking prevalence from 14.9% to 11.8% over the study periods.

Conclusions:

  • Smoking prevalence differs significantly across IVS-defined areas in Belo Horizonte.
  • Smoking rates declined in affluent areas but persisted in disadvantaged areas, indicating socioeconomic disparities.
  • The developed methodology provides reliable small-area estimates for vulnerable populations, aiding public health policy formulation and evaluation for smoking cessation programs.