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Published on: October 16, 2013
Development and validation of a scoring system for predicting cancer patients at risk of extended-spectrum
Alvaro J Martínez-Valencia1, Brian J Gómez Martínez2, Anita M Montañez Ayala2
1Departamento de Medicina Interna. Bogotá, Universidad Nacional de Colombia, Bogotá, D.C., Colombia. ajmartinezv@unal.edu.co.
Background:
Extended-spectrum beta-lactamase producing Enterobacteriaceae (ESBL-PE) infections are frequent and highly impact cancer patients. We developed and validated a scoring system to identify cancer patients harboring ESBL-PE at the National Institute of Cancer of Colombia.
Methods:
We retrospectively analyzed medical records of 1695 cancer patients. Derivation phase included 710 patients admitted between 2013 to 2015, ESBL-PE positive culture (n = 265) paired by month and hospitalization ward with Non-ESBL-PE (n = 445). A crude and weighted score was developed by conditional logistic regression. The model was evaluated in a Validation cohort (n = 985) with the same eligibility criteria between 2016 to 2017.
Results:
The score was based on eight variables (reported with Odds Ratio and 95% confidence interval): Hospitalization ≥7 days (5.39 [2.46-11.80]), Hospitalization during the previous year (4, 87 [2.99-7.93]), immunosuppressive therapy during the previous 3 months (2.97 [1.44-6.08]), Neutropenia (1.90 [1.12-3.24]), Exposure to Betalactams during previous month (1.61 [1.06-2.42]), Invasive devices (1.51 [1.012-2.25]), Neoplasia in remission (2.78 [1.25-1.17]), No chemotherapy during the previous 3 months (1.90 [1.22-2.97]). The model demonstrated an acceptable discriminatory capacity in the Derivation phase, but poor in the Validation phase (Recipient Operating Characteristic Curve: 0.68 and 0.55 respectively).
Conclusions:
Cancer patients have a high prevalence of risk factors for ESBL-PE infection. The scoring system did not adequately discriminate patients with ESBL-PE. In a high-risk population, other strategies should be sought to identify patients at risk of resistant ESBL-PE infection.
