The Bias of Individuals (in Crowds): Why Implicit Bias Is Probably a Noisily Measured Individual-Level Construct

Payne, Vuletich, and Lundberg's bias-of-crowds model proposes that a number of empirical puzzles can be resolved by conceptualizing implicit bias as a feature of situations rather than a feature of individuals. In the present article we argue against this model and propose that, given the existing evidence, implicit bias is best understood as an individual-level construct measured with substantial error. First, using real and simulated data, we show how each of Payne and colleagues' proposed puzzles can be explained as being the result of measurement error and its reduction via aggregation. Second, we discuss why the authors' counterarguments against this explanation have been unconvincing. Finally, we test a hypothesis derived from the bias-of-crowds model about the effect of an individually targeted "implicit-bias-based expulsion program" within universities and show the model to lack empirical support. We conclude by considering the implications of conceptualizing implicit bias as a noisily measured individual-level construct for ongoing implicit-bias research. All data and code are available at https://osf.io/tj8u6/.