[Grey model prediction of occupational diseases in Changsha]

Objective: To understand and predict the situation of occupational diseases in Changsha, and to provide theoretical basis for the scientific formulation of occupational diseases prevention, control strategies and measures. Methods: In April 2019, the data of occupational diseases incidences from 2010 to 2018 were collected. The original GM (1, 1) grey model and buffer operator improved model were established, and compared their prediction effect. The model with the smallest average relative error was selected to predict the incidence of occupational diseases during 2019-2023. Results: The relative accuracy of the original GM (1, 1) grey model and the first-order and second-order buffer operator improved model were 80.92%, 97.71%, 99.64%, respectively. And the c values were 0.74, 0.28, 0.09, and the P values were 0.67, 1.00, 1.00, respectively. It was predicted that the incidence number of occupational diseases in Changsha during 2019-2023 would be 40, 39, 39, 38, 37, respectively. Conclusion: The buffer operator improved model is suitable for the prediction of the original data series with high volatility, and it can fit the incidence of occupational diseases in Changsha.