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Humidity is a consistent climatic factor contributing to SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Michael P Ward1, Shuang Xiao2, Zhijie Zhang2
1Sydney School of Veterinary Science, The University of Sydney, Camden, NSW, Australia.
Transboundary and Emerging Diseases
|August 5, 2020
Summary
Higher humidity levels correlate with fewer COVID-19 cases, suggesting humidity influences SARS-CoV-2 transmission. A 1% decrease in relative humidity was linked to a 7-8% rise in cases in New South Wales.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
Background:
- Climatic factors are increasingly recognized for their potential impact on the COVID-19 pandemic's trajectory.
- Previous research suggests a link between environmental conditions and the spread of respiratory viruses.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between specific climatic factors and COVID-19 case numbers in New South Wales, Australia.
- To determine if humidity, temperature, rainfall, or wind speed influenced SARS-CoV-2 transmission during different epidemic phases.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of COVID-19 case data against climatic variables (relative humidity, temperature, rainfall, wind speed) in New South Wales.
- Examination of data during both exponential and declining phases of the 2020 epidemic across different regions.
Main Results:
- A significant negative correlation was observed between relative humidity and COVID-19 cases.
- A 1% decrease in relative humidity was associated with a 7-8% increase in COVID-19 cases.
- No significant relationships were found between COVID-19 cases and temperature, rainfall, or wind speed.
Conclusions:
- Relative humidity is confirmed as a significant driver of SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
- Findings highlight the role of humidity in modulating COVID-19 spread, particularly in the Southern Hemisphere's summer and autumn.
- Public health strategies could potentially incorporate humidity-based forecasting for transmission dynamics.
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