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Updated: Dec 13, 2025
Vector Competence Analyses on Aedes aegypti Mosquitoes using Zika Virus
Published on: May 31, 2020
Effects of Mosquito Biology on Modeled Chikungunya Virus Invasion Potential in Florida
Cynthia C Lord1, L Philip Lounibos1, Joseph J Pohedra1
1Florida Medical Entomology Laboratory, University of Florida-IFAS, 200 9th St. SE, Vero Beach, FL 32962, USA.
Abstract:
Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus have been introduced to Florida on many occasions. Infrequently, these introductions lead to sporadic local transmission and, more rarely, sustained local transmission. Both mosquito species are present in Florida, with spatio-temporal variation in population composition. We developed a two-vector compartmental, deterministic model to investigate factors influencing Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) establishment. The model includes a nonlinear, temperature-dependent mosquito mortality function based on minimum mortality in a central temperature region. Latin Hypercube sampling was used to generate parameter sets used to simulate transmission dynamics, following the introduction of one infected human. The analysis was repeated for three values of the mortality function central temperature. Mean annual temperature was consistently important in the likelihood of epidemics, and epidemics increased as the central temperature increased. Ae. albopictus recruitment was influential at the lowest central temperature while Ae. aegypti recruitment was influential at higher central temperatures. Our results indicate that the likelihood of CHIKV establishment may vary, but overall Florida is permissive for introductions. Model outcomes were sensitive to the specifics of mosquito mortality. Mosquito biology parameters are variable, and improved understanding of this variation will improve our ability to predict the outcome of introductions.
Insights
Florida
Area of Science:
- Vector-borne disease ecology
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases
Background:
- Arboviruses transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes are frequently introduced to Florida.
- Local transmission of these viruses, including Chikungunya virus (CHIKV), occurs infrequently.
- Florida's environment supports populations of both Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate factors influencing Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) establishment in Florida.
- To model the impact of temperature on CHIKV transmission dynamics.
- To assess the role of mosquito species composition in CHIKV epidemics.
Main Methods:
- Development of a two-vector compartmental, deterministic model.
- Inclusion of a nonlinear, temperature-dependent mosquito mortality function.
- Utilized Latin Hypercube sampling for parameter generation and simulation of transmission dynamics.
Main Results:
- Mean annual temperature was a critical factor in epidemic likelihood, with higher temperatures increasing epidemic potential.
- Aedes albopictus recruitment influenced transmission at lower temperatures, while Aedes aegypti was more influential at higher temperatures.
- Model outcomes demonstrated sensitivity to mosquito mortality parameters.
Conclusions:
- Florida's climate is permissive for arbovirus introductions and potential establishment.
- Temperature significantly influences the likelihood and dynamics of CHIKV epidemics.
- Improved understanding of mosquito biology, particularly mortality, is crucial for predicting arbovirus establishment.
