Relationship of George Floyd protests to increases in COVID-19 cases using event study methodology

Protests ignited by the George Floyd incident were examined for any significant impact on COVID-19 infection rates in select US cities.

Eight US cities were studied in which protestors in the tens of thousands were reported. Only cities that reside in states whose stay-at-home orders had been rescinded or expired for a minimum of 30 days were included in the sample to account for impact of growth rates solely due to economies reopening. Event study methodology was used with a 30-day estimation period to examine whether growth in COVID-19 infection rates was significant.

In the eight cities analyzed, all had positive abnormal growth in infection rate. In six of the eight cities, infection rate growth was positive and significant.

In this study, it was apparent that violations of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)-recommended social distancing guidelines caused a significant increase in infection rates. The data suggest that to slow the spread of COVID-19, CDC guidelines must be followed in protest situations.