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Related Experiment Video

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Measuring the Subjective Value of Risky and Ambiguous Options using Experimental Economics and Functional MRI Methods
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Information gaps for risk and ambiguity.

Russell Golman1, Nikolos Gurney1, George Loewenstein1

  • 1Department of Social and Decision Sciences.

Psychological Review
|August 8, 2020
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

People gamble more on events they enjoy thinking about, showing risk-seeking behavior when uncertainty is pleasant. Conversely, unpleasant uncertainty leads to risk aversion, influencing decisions under risk and ambiguity.

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Area of Science:

  • Decision making under risk and ambiguity
  • Behavioral economics
  • Information preferences

Background:

  • Uncertainty creates information gaps that capture attention.
  • The emotional response to these information gaps influences risk preferences.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To model decision-making under risk and ambiguity based on information preferences.
  • To explain phenomena like comparative ignorance and aversion to compound risk.
  • To test the novel prediction that enjoyment of thinking about information influences wagering behavior.

Main Methods:

  • Application of a preference model for information presence/absence.
  • Analysis of how attention is drawn to information gaps in uncertain prospects.
  • Empirical testing of wagering behavior based on the pleasantness of thinking about information.

Main Results:

  • Individuals exhibit risk and ambiguity aversion when thinking about information gaps is unpleasant.
  • Individuals may exhibit risk and ambiguity seeking when thinking about information gaps is pleasant.
  • Empirical tests support the prediction that people wager more on events they enjoy contemplating.

Conclusions:

  • Emotional responses to information gaps are crucial in understanding risk and ambiguity preferences.
  • The model explains various decision-making phenomena, including source preference and comparative ignorance.
  • Enjoyment of contemplating uncertain outcomes significantly impacts wagering behavior.