A 10-Year Prospective Study of Socio-Professional and Psychological Outcomes in Students From High-Risk Schools...

Early academic difficulty reduces the probability of pursuing higher education and has consequences for a wide range of personal and socio-professional outcomes. However, the role of academic performance is often difficult to assess independently from school-based influences. This prospective investigation uses a nested high-risk paradigm to examine the role of personal, familial and school-based factors in the prediction of 10-year outcomes. A sample of 131 secondary school students were selected based on scores in the highest or lowest quartiles in national exams, and both groups were selected equally from regular or low-performing schools. Ten years later, 100 of these individuals participated in a follow-up assessment of academic, socio-professional and personal outcomes. Academic difficulty and specific parental professions were strongly associated with a lower probability of pursuing higher education and with a greater likelihood of part-time or minimum-wage employment. No effect was observed for school status and it did not interact with academic performance in predicting the majority of outcomes. Strategies designed to improve individual academic performance and that address familial difficulties should remain priorities for improving long-term outcomes. The lack of influence of school-based characteristics may indicate the efficacy of strategies aimed at reducing inequalities in resources at the institutional level.