Living in a Multi-Risk Chaotic Condition: Pandemic, Natural Hazards and Complex Emergencies

Area of Science:

• Disaster Risk Management
• Public Health
• Emergency Management

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic presents unique risks, exacerbating vulnerabilities to other hazard events.
• Global populations face increasing multi-risk scenarios due to the confluence of pandemics with natural disasters or complex emergencies.
• Existing risk legislation often overlooks the cascading effects of these combined hazards.

Purpose of the Study:

• To qualitatively analyze the hybrid impacts of pandemic-combined hazardous events on healthcare systems.
• To explore the temporal effects of pandemics on the recovery from other adverse events.
• To highlight the need for enhanced multi-hazard risk research and funding.

Main Methods:

• Development of low-probability, high-risk scenarios combining pandemic situations with natural hazards (e.g., earthquakes, floods) or complex emergencies (e.g., mass protests, military movements).
• Qualitative assessment of the hybrid impacts on healthcare system functionality and potential losses.
• Review of evacuation, sheltering, and escape strategies during pandemic-natural hazard events.

Main Results:

• Cascading effects of multi-hazard scenarios, particularly on healthcare systems, are significant and often underestimated.
• Pandemics can alter the nature and recovery timelines of subsequent or concurrent hazardous events.
• Conflicts arise in implementing standard emergency responses like evacuation during a pandemic.

Conclusions:

• Multi-hazard scenarios, especially those involving pandemics, pose complex challenges to healthcare infrastructure and societal resilience.
• Current risk management frameworks are inadequate for addressing the cascading and hybrid impacts of these events.
• Increased funding and research are urgently needed to develop robust strategies for managing multi-hazard risks in a pandemic era.