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Risk Calculators in Bipolar Disorder: A Systematic Review
Joana Silva Ribeiro1,2, Daniela Pereira2,3, Estela Salagre4
1Psychiatry Department, Centro Hospitalar Vila Nova de Gaia/Espinho, 4434-502 Vila Nova de Gaia, Portugal.
Brain Sciences
|August 13, 2020
Summary
This review identifies risk calculators for bipolar disorder, showing good predictive power for identifying individuals at high risk. Further validation is needed to improve early diagnosis and patient outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Psychiatry
- Genetics
- Epidemiology
Background:
- Early recognition of bipolar disorder is crucial for improving prognosis and reducing disease burden.
- Significant delays in bipolar disorder diagnosis highlight the need for better predictive tools.
- Advances in identifying risk factors and high-risk populations have enabled the development of risk calculators.
Purpose of the Study:
- To systematically review and assess the clinical applicability of existing risk calculators for bipolar disorder.
- To identify tools that can predict the individual risk of conversion to bipolar disorder.
Main Methods:
- A systematic review of original studies developing risk calculators for bipolar disorder was conducted.
- Study quality was assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Quality Assessment Form for Cohort Studies.
- Adherence to the Transparent Reporting of a multivariable prediction model for Individual Prognosis or Diagnosis (TRIPOD) initiative was evaluated.
Main Results:
- Three studies met the inclusion criteria for the review.
- One calculator predicted conversion from major depressive episode to bipolar disorder.
- Other calculators focused on conversion to bipolar spectrum disorders in offspring of affected parents and in youth with bipolar disorder not-otherwise-specified.
Conclusions:
- The reviewed risk calculators demonstrate good discrimination power for bipolar disorder.
- Replication and further validation of these predictive models are necessary for clinical implementation.
- Improved risk assessment can aid in earlier diagnosis and management of bipolar disorder.
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