Predicting distribution of Zanthoxylum bungeanum Maxim. in China

With the growth of economic benefits brought by Zanthoxylum bungeanum Maxim. and the increasing market demand, this species has been widely introduced and cultivated in China. It is important to scientifically select suitable areas for artificial planting and promotion, and to understand the status and potential of Z. bungeanum resources.

The maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and ArcGIS technologies were used to analyze the climatic suitability of Z. bungeanum based on known distribution data, combined with environmental data in China. Z. bungeanum was mainly distributed in subtropical and mid-eastern warm temperate regions. The total suitable area (high and medium suitability) accounted for 32% of China's total land area, with high suitability areas composing larger percentage, reaching 1.93 × 10⁶ km². The suitable range (and optimum value) of the key environmental variables affecting the distribution of Z. bungeanum were the maximum temperature in February of 2.8-17.7 °C (10.4 °C), the maximum temperature in March of 8.6-21.4 °C (16.3 °C), the maximum temperature in December of 2.5-17.1 °C (9.9 °C), the maximum temperature in November of 7.7-22.2 °C (14.5 °C) and the mean temperature in March of 3.2-16.2 °C (12.0 °C).

The model developed by MaxEnt was applicable to explore the environmental suitability of Z. bungeanum.