A methodology for estimation of land use changes in an urban area with the emergence of a new impact factor

This article introduces a methodology that aims to develop a detailed framework for measuring land-use changes in an area affected by several impact factors, especially by a new project which is economically and spatially critical in an urban area. The basis of the methodology lays on the Sieve approach that analyzes changes by categorizing different factors in an urban settlement or even on vacant lands. It is a multi-factorial approach that evaluates and simulates land-use changes in an urban area with a newly-emerged impact factor (Airport in this study). Factors such as proximity to Transportation nodes, Commercial areas, Industrial areas, Health centers, Educational areas, and many others that define investors, users, and planners' tendencies are all critical parameters that can be used as inputs of this quantitative approach. Function Impact Analysis Oriented Land-Use Assessment Model (APELUM), developed in this study, is a new method useful for measuring land cover changes in an urban area even before it takes place. It can be used as a method for analyzing different scenarios to determine the strengths and weaknesses of each model. Two different scenarios, supported by two different spatial models, are evaluated: "Demands and trends of the users and investors in the urban area" that simulates rapid and unplanned development and "The planning decisions and user trends" to simulate strategic development. The methodology uses AutoCAD and ArcGIS tools for producing maps and making different measurements.•This quantitative model and similar ones are useful tools for measuring the range of land-use changes after or before the implementation of a new project in an urban area.•It generates quantitative estimations based on spatial data in the planning process of cities.•It can be useful to develop simulation models that make correlations between different features of measured tendencies.