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Anomalous climate dynamics induced by multiplicative and additive noises
Dmitri V Alexandrov1, Irina A Bashkirtseva1, Lev B Ryashko1
1Department of Theoretical and Mathematical Physics, Laboratory of Multi-Scale Mathematical Modeling, Ural Federal University, Ekaterinburg, 620000, Russian Federation.
Physical Review. E
|August 16, 2020
Summary
This study reveals how different types of noise impact a climate-vegetation model. Multiplicative noise cools the system towards a "snowball" state, while additive noise warms it, with combined effects depending on noise intensity.
Area of Science:
- Climate modeling
- Ecological dynamics
- Stochastic processes
Background:
- Nonlinear climate-vegetation models exhibit bistability, with coexisting "snowball" and "warm" states.
- Stochastic sensitivity analysis is crucial for understanding model behavior under uncertainty.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the anomalous behavior of a nonlinear climate-vegetation model under multiplicative and additive noise.
- To elucidate the distinct and cumulative effects of these noises on system dynamics and state transitions.
Main Methods:
- Stochastic sensitivity analysis was employed to examine the model's response to noise.
- The study analyzed the influence of multiplicative noise on vegetation death rates and additive noise on system parameters.
Main Results:
- Multiplicative and additive noises shift probabilistic distributions in opposite directions.
- Multiplicative noise cools the system, promoting a transition to the "snowball" state.
- Additive noise warms the climate, with its effect intensifying with noise levels.
Conclusions:
- The interplay between multiplicative and additive noises critically determines the evolutionary trajectory of the climate-vegetation system.
- The ratio of noise intensities dictates the cumulative effect, influencing the balance between "snowball" and "warm" attractors.
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