Tumor burden of persistent disease in patients with differentiated thyroid cancer: correlation with postoperative risk-stratification and impact on outcome

In patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC), tumor burden of persistent disease (PD) is a variable that could affect therapy efficiency. Our aim was to assess its correlation with the 2015 American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk-stratification system, and its impact on response to initial therapy and outcome.

This retrospective cohort study included 618 consecutive DTC patients referred for postoperative radioiodine (RAI) treatment. Patients were risk-stratified using the 2015 ATA guidelines according to postoperative data, before RAI treatment. Tumor burden of PD was classified into three categories, i.e. very small-, small- and large-volume PD. Very small-volume PD was defined by the presence of abnormal foci on post-RAI scintigraphy with SPECT/CT or ¹⁸FDG PET/CT without identifiable lesions on anatomic imaging. Small- and large-volume PD were defined by lesions with a largest size < 10 or ≥ 10 mm respectively.

PD was evidenced in 107 patients (17%). Mean follow-up for patients with PD was 7 ± 3 years. The percentage of large-volume PD increased with the ATA risk (18, 56 and 89% in low-, intermediate- and high-risk patients, respectively, p < 0.0001). There was a significant trend for a decrease in excellent response rate from the very small-, small- to large-volume PD groups at 9-12 months after initial therapy (71, 20 and 7%, respectively; p = 0.01) and at last follow-up visit (75, 28 and 16%, respectively; p = 0.04). On multivariate analysis, age ≥ 45 years, distant and/or thyroid bed disease, small-volume or large-volume tumor burden and ¹⁸FDG-positive PD were independent risk factors for indeterminate or incomplete response at last follow-up visit.

The tumor burden of PD correlates with the ATA risk-stratification, affects the response to initial therapy and is an independent predictor of residual disease after a mean 7-yr follow-up. This variable might be taken into account in addition to the postoperative ATA risk-stratification to refine outcome prognostication after initial treatment.