Modeling the Long-term Antibody Response and Duration of Immune Protection Induced by an Inactivated,...

Long-term seroprotection via the hepatitis A vaccine is essential for the prevention of disease from the hepatitis A virus (HAV). Due to documented difficulties during decade-long follow-ups after receiving vaccines, statistical-modeling approaches have been applied to predict the duration of immune protection.

Based on five-year follow-up data from a randomized positive-controlled trial among Chinese children (1-8 years old) following a 0, 6 months vaccination schedule, a power-law model accounting for the kinetics of B-cell turnover, as well as a modified power-law model considering a memory-B-cell subpopulation, were fitted to predict the long-term immune responses induced by HAV vaccination (Healive or Havrix). Anti-HAV levels of each individual and seroconversion rates up to 30 years after vaccination were predicted.

A total of 375 participants who completed the two-dose vaccination were included in the analysis. Both models predicted that, over a life-long period, participants vaccinated with Healive would have close but slightly higher antibody titers than those of participants vaccinated with Havrix. Additionally, consistent with previous studies, more than 90% of participants were predicted to maintain seroconversion for at least 30 years. Moreover, the modified power-law model predicted that the antibody titers would reach a plateau level after nearly 15 years post-vaccination.

Based on the results of our modeling, Healive may adequately induce long-term immune responses following a 0, 6 months vaccination schedule in children via induction of memory B cells to provide stable and durable immune protection.