Spatial analysis of completeness of death registration in Egypt

Civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) systems should be the primary source of routine mortality data. However, there is lack of information about the completeness of death registration at the sub-national level of Egypt. The current study was conducted to estimate the completeness of death registration at the national and sub-national levels of Egypt, to investigate the spatial patterns of the completeness, and to examine the factors that influence it.

Data from the Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS, 2018) and Egypt Demographic and Health Survey (EDHS 2008, 2014) were used to estimate the completeness of death registration using an empirical method (random-effects models); hot spot analysis was conducted using Moran's I and Getis-Ord Gi*; and the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model has been also carried out.

The study estimates show that Egypt has 96% completeness of death registration, and all governorates have completeness of more than 90% except for Beni-Suef, Menia, Aswan, Suhag, Luxor, ELWadi ELGidid, and South Sinai. According to sex, the death registration of females is slightly better than that of males (96.8% compared to 95.4%). Concerning residence, urban area has almost complete death registration compared to rural area (99.5% and 85.4%, respectively). Hot spot analysis shows that all hot spots are centered on the north of Egypt, while all cold spots are focused on the south. However, according to the geographically weighted regression (GWR) model, poverty, illiteracy, and health office density are considered major factors for the completeness of death registration.

Although the completeness in Egypt is almost 100%, this analysis suggests that it may not be, and that it could be somewhat lower in some rural areas. However, there is uncertainty in the sub-national estimates because deaths are only reported by place of occurrence and not place of usual residence. Thus, efforts should focus on improving the quality of data of the vital registration system in some rural areas and in lower Egyptian governorates.