Decarbonization of Vietnam's economy: decomposing the drivers for a low-carbon growth

Vietnam has witnessed a rapid increase in national-level CO₂ emissions due to rising urbanization, economic expansion, export growth, and industrial development. Moreover, to support the ambitious economic growth targets, reliance on and consumption of fossil fuels are increasing by each passing year. With this circumstance, this study aims to analyze the key drivers of CO₂ emissions in Vietnam from 1990 to 2016 using the Kaya identity and decomposition method. Following this approach, CO₂ emissions have been decomposed into five effect categories comprising population, affluence, energy intensity, fuel mix, and emission intensity. As per the results, CO₂ emissions in Vietnam were mainly driven by rising affluence (58.5%) and changing fuel mix (33.2%) which have resulted from improved living standards, rapid industrial development, and higher fossil fuel consumption. Moreover, population (13.8%) and emission intensity (3.1%) exhibited a relatively lower impact on CO₂ emissions during 1990-2016. However, energy intensity (- 8.7%) was the only negative driver which has resulted in the slowdown of carbon emissions in Vietnam. Based on the analysis of energy policy development, the share of renewable energy resources was still quite low in the national energy mix with higher reliance on traditional fossil fuels (mainly coal and petroleum). Therefore, to make a transition towards low-carbon economic growth, significant improvements in energy efficiency and emission intensity are necessary together with national energy mix restructuring for low-carbon economic growth.