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Updated: Dec 11, 2025
An Experimental Paradigm for the Prediction of Post-Operative Pain PPOP
Published on: January 27, 2010
The FUTUREPAIN study: Validating a questionnaire to predict the probability of having chronic pain 7-10 years into
Timothy T Brown1, Woojung Lee2
1School of Public Health, University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, CA, United States of America.
Objectives:
The FUTUREPAIN study develops a short general-purpose questionnaire, based on the biopsychosocial model, to predict the probability of developing or maintaining moderate-to-severe chronic pain 7-10 years into the future.
Methods:
This is a retrospective cohort study. Two-thirds of participants in the National Survey of Midlife Development in the United States were randomly assigned to a training cohort used to train a predictive machine learning model based on the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) algorithm, which produces a model with minimal covariates. Out-of-sample predictions from this model were then estimated using the remaining one-third testing cohort to determine the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). An optimal cut-point that maximized sensitivity and specificity was determined.
Results:
The LASSO model using 82 variables in the training cohort, yielded an 18-variable model with an out-of-sample AUROC of 0.85 (95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.80, 0.91) in the testing cohort. The sum of sensitivity (0.88) and specificity (0.76) was maximized at a cut-point of 17 (95% CI: 15, 18) on a 0-100 scale where the AUROC was 0.82.
Discussion:
We developed a short general-purpose questionnaire that predicts the probability of an adult having moderate-to-severe chronic pain in 7-to-10 years. It has diagnostic ability greater than 80% and can be used regardless of whether a patient is currently experiencing chronic pain. Knowing which patients are likely to have moderate-to-severe chronic pain in the future allows clinicians to target preventive treatment.
