Who uses residential aged care now, how has it changed and what does it mean for the future?

Objective This paper presents past trends in resident characteristics and usage patterns in residential aged care and explores implications for the future. Methods Time series analyses were undertaken of national aged care administrative datasets and the Australian Bureau of Statistics Surveys of Disability, Ageing and Carers. Results Although the number of people in residential care has continued to increase, resident profiles have changed as a result of higher growth rates in the number of men and of people aged 65-74 years and 90 years and over, and a decline in the number of women aged 75-89 years. Relative to population size, usage rates are declining across all age groups, the average length of stay is shortening, and dependency levels appear to be rising. Conclusion Changing trends in residential aged care use, when combined with key trends in the broader population of older Australians, offer useful insights in planning for the future. What is known about the topic? Trends in the changing characteristics of permanent aged care residents and patterns of use of Australian residential aged care have received sparse attention in scholarly journals. Government reports and databases contain useful statistics, but they do not provide a coherent analysis and interpretation of the implications of these trends or situate them in broader population patterns. What does this paper add? The analyses in this paper demonstrate patterns of change and continuity in the use of residential care over the past decade, and locate those changes in the context of broader trends in the ageing population. Together, this provides useful insights into current and likely future trends, as well as a basis for imagining an improved residential aged care system in the future. What are the implications for practitioners? These analyses illustrate how data on aged care services, demographic trends and disease patterns can be used to consider the challenges that have affected our residential aged care system in the past and how that may be addressed in the future.