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The Role of Decision Analysis in Risk Analysis: A Retrospective
1University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI, USA.
Summary
Decision analysis has significantly enhanced risk analysis over 40 years. Incorporating decision-analytic methods improves risk assessment by considering multiple viewpoints and behavioral realism.
Area of Science:
- Risk Analysis
- Decision Analysis
- Decision Science
Background:
- This article commemorates the 40th anniversary of the journal Risk Analysis.
- It examines the contributions of decision analysis, a related field, to risk analysis.
- The review spans the journal's history, highlighting foundational and applied research.
Purpose of the Study:
- To retrospectively analyze the impact of decision analysis on the field of risk analysis.
- To identify key decision-analytic methods applied to risk problems.
- To observe the parallel evolution of both fields and their key themes.
Main Methods:
- Literature review of foundational and applied papers in Risk Analysis.
- Analysis of decision-analytic methods including influence diagrams, multicriteria decision analysis, and risk matrices.
- Examination of recent trends and historical evolution of risk and decision analysis.
Main Results:
- Decision analysis has made substantial contributions to risk analysis over four decades.
- Methods like influence diagrams and multicriteria decision analysis have been effectively applied.
- Recent trends emphasize stakeholder perspectives and behavioral realism in decision models.
Conclusions:
- The integration of decision-analytic perspectives has demonstrably improved the practice of risk analysis.
- The parallel evolution highlights the growing importance of stakeholder engagement and realistic decision-making.
- Decision analysis remains a vital complementary field for advancing risk assessment methodologies.
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