Using mixed methods to construct and analyze a participatory agent-based model of a complex Zimbabwean agro-pastoral...

Area of Science:

• Social-ecological systems analysis
• Computational modeling
• Environmental management

Background:

• Social-ecological systems present complex challenges for study and management.
• Participatory modeling enhances stakeholder involvement in developing management strategies.
• Quantitative behavioral validation of simulation models is increasingly feasible with advanced data and models.

Purpose of the Study:

• To collaboratively develop and validate a novel agent-based model (ABM) for a Zimbabwean agro-pastoral system using extensive historical data.
• To assess the model's utility as a discussion tool for researchers and its effectiveness in informing land-use planning and management interventions.
• To investigate the impact of parameter assumptions, indigenous management, and rainfall variability on system dynamics and sustainability.

Main Methods:

• Creation of a novel agent-based model (ABM) using 35 years of data from the Muonde Trust in Zimbabwe.
• Qualitative structural validation through collaborative model calibration with stakeholders.
• Quantitative behavioral validation using community-based data, followed by sensitivity analysis.

Main Results:

• The ABM was successfully structurally validated and deemed a useful discussion tool for researchers.
• Behavioral validation was inconsistent, with some model variables aligning better with field data than others.
• Increasing rainfall variability and certain management interventions led to model system instability; interventions smoothing year-to-year variation enhanced sustainability.

Conclusions:

• The developed ABM provides a realistic and useful tool for exploring social-ecological system dynamics and informing management decisions.
• Management interventions that maintain system feedbacks and buffer against environmental variability are crucial for enhancing sustainability.
• The model facilitated successful advocacy for policy changes in land-use planning, demonstrating its practical application in real-world sustainability efforts.