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A python based support vector regression model for prediction of COVID19 cases in India.

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This study used support vector regression to predict COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recoveries. The model achieved high accuracy, suggesting a Gaussian decrease and a potential 3-4 month decline to minimal levels.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Data Science
  • Machine Learning

Background:

  • Accurate prediction of infectious disease trends is crucial for public health response.
  • The early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic required robust modeling for forecasting.
  • Support Vector Regression (SVR) offers a powerful tool for time-series prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To predict the number of total deaths, recovered cases, cumulative confirmed cases, and daily new cases of COVID-19.
  • To evaluate the performance of a Support Vector Regression model for epidemiological forecasting.
  • To forecast COVID-19 trends up to June 30, 2020.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized Support Vector Regression (SVR) with a Radial Basis Function kernel.
  • Trained the model on COVID-19 data from March 1 to April 30, 2020 (61 days).
  • Split data into 60% training and 40% testing sets, with a 10% confidence interval for curve fitting.

Main Results:

  • The SVR model demonstrated high accuracy: >97% for deaths, recoveries, and cumulative cases; 87% for daily new cases.
  • Predicted values were generated for the period up to June 30, 2020.
  • The model indicated a Gaussian decrease in cases, suggesting a potential 3-4 month period for cases to reach minimal levels.

Conclusions:

  • Support Vector Regression is an efficient and accurate method for predicting COVID-19 epidemiological trends.
  • The model's performance surpasses that of linear or polynomial regression.
  • The findings provide valuable insights for public health planning and resource allocation during the pandemic.