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A daily fever curve for the Swiss economy
Marc Burri1, Daniel Kaufmann1,2
1Institute of Economic Research, University of Neuchâtel, Rue A.-L. Breguet 2, Neuchâtel, 2000 Switzerland.
Abstract:
Because macroeconomic data is published with a substantial delay, assessing the health of the economy during the rapidly evolving COVID-19 crisis is challenging. We develop a fever curve for the Swiss economy using publicly available daily financial market and news data. The indicator can be computed with a delay of 1 day. Moreover, it is highly correlated with macroeconomic data and survey indicators of Swiss economic activity. Therefore, it provides timely and reliable warning signals if the health of the economy takes a turn for the worse.
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