COVID-19 and EU Climate Targets: Can We Now Go Further?

This paper examines the implications of the COVID-19 crisis on the 2030 EU CO₂ emissions target, considering a range of economic growth scenarios. With lower economic activity resulting from the COVID-19 crisis, we find that existing climate policy measures could overshoot the current 40% EU target in 2030. If policymakers consequently relax climate policy measures to maintain the 2030 target, the opportunity will be missed to align EU climate policy with longer-term Paris emissions mitigation goals. Our analysis highlights that although existing climate policy measures will likely reduce emissions more than 40% by 2030 in the wake of the pandemic, they will not be enough to meet the Paris agreement. More stringent measures, such as those proposed under the Green New Deal, will still be needed and may be less costly than previously estimated.