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Lockdown timing and efficacy in controlling COVID-19 using mobile phone tracking
Marco Vinceti1,2, Tommaso Filippini1, Kenneth J Rothman2,3
1Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Campi 287, 41125 Modena, Italy.
Eclinicalmedicine
|August 25, 2020
Summary
A stricter COVID-19 lockdown effectively reduced mobility and transmission rates in Italy. Less rigid measures were insufficient to curb the outbreak, highlighting the impact of intensified restrictions on public health.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Mobility Studies
Background:
- Italy experienced a severe COVID-19 outbreak necessitating phased lockdowns of increasing intensity.
- The precise impact of mobility restriction intensity and timing on outbreak recession remains unclear.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the effectiveness of varying lockdown intensities on COVID-19 transmission.
- To correlate mobility restriction data with SARS-CoV-2 case numbers in Italy.
Main Methods:
- Utilized processed mobile phone tracking data to quantify mobility restrictions.
- Analyzed daily new SARS-CoV-2 cases in Lombardy, Veneto, and Emilia-Romagna (Feb 1 - Apr 6, 2020).
- Correlated mobility data with case counts during two distinct lockdown periods.
Main Results:
- Mobility restriction correlated inversely with new cases only after the second, more stringent lockdown.
- A peak in diagnosed cases occurred 14-18 days post-lockdown, with transmission reduction likely immediate due to diagnostic lag.
- Areas with higher initial prevalence showed a faster decline in cases post-lockdown.
Conclusions:
- Less rigid lockdowns resulted in insufficient mobility reduction to control the COVID-19 outbreak.
- Tighter lockdowns significantly decreased mobility, leading to a prompt reduction in transmission below epidemic sustaining levels.
