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Seasonal variation in notified tuberculosis cases from 2014 to 2018 in eastern China

Yishu Li¹, Limei Zhu², Wei Lu²

¹Department of Epidemiology and Statistics, School of Public Health, Southeast University, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, PR China.

The Journal of International Medical Research

|August 26, 2020

Abstract

Objective:

Tuberculosis (TB) incidence shows a seasonal trend. The purpose of this study was to explore seasonal trends in TB cases in Jiangsu Province.

Methods:

TB case data were collected from the TB registration system from 2014 to 2018. The X12-ARIMA model was used to adjust the Jiangsu TB time series. Analysis of variance was used to compare TB seasonal amplitude (SA) between subgroups and identify factors responsible for seasonal variation.

Results:

The TB incidence in Jiangsu showed a seasonal trend. Confirmed active TB peaked in March and reached a minimum in February. The amplitude of the peak-to-bottom difference was 38.15%. The SAs in individuals 7 to 17 years old (80.00%) and students (71.80%) were significantly different than those in other subgroups. Among bacterial culture positive individuals, the SAs among female patients, individuals aged 7 to 17 years and students were significantly different from those in the reference group. Among culture-negative patients, the SA among individuals aged 7 to 17 years was significantly different those in other subgroups.

Conclusions:

The TB incidence in Jiangsu Province displayed a seasonal trend. Factors related to seasonal variation were age and occupation. Our results highlight the importance of controlling Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission during winter.

Keywords:

Jiansu Province Tuberculosis X12-ARIMA distribution modeling seasonality

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