Predicting the habitat distribution of rubber plantations with topography, soil, land use, and climatic factors

Commercial demand is the prerequisite for the expansion of rubber plantation, which is highly dependent on climate, topography, and soil factors. Without the contextual knowledge on these factors, the expansion of rubber plantation would remain unproductive. This study thereby aimed to evaluate the current and future suitable habitat distributions of rubber using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) species distribution model in Xishuangbanna, Southwest China. A total of 148 field-based presence locations and environmental variables (soil, bioclimatic, topography, and land use) were used to predict the suitable areas of rubber plantations using HadGEM2-ES climate model. Medium and high climatic representative concentration pathways (RCPs) (4.5 and 8.5) were selected to predict the suitable habitats for the years 2050 and 2070. Among various factors, annual mean temperature, annual precipitation, precipitation of wettest month, precipitation seasonality, precipitation of warmest quarter, and soil exchangeable H⁺ contributed significantly to the distribution of rubber. Currently, 1119 km² and 2716 km² were predicted as high and moderately suitable areas respectively. It is predicted with increase rates in the high suitable areas, 49.96% and 328.95% by 2050 and 2070 respectively under RCP 4.5. This result indicates that the medium climate change of RCP 4.5 may have a direct positive effect on the expansion of habitat suitability of rubber. We also found potential areas for rubber cultivation in Jinghong and Mengla townships, where the further expansion is anticipated with desirable land-use planning by conserving reserve forest and native vegetation.