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00:57Weighted Mean
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Measuring individual worker output in a complementary team setting: Does regularized adjusted plus minus isolate
Shankar Ghimire1, Justin A Ehrlich2, Shane D Sanders2
1Department of Economics and Decision Sciences, Western Illinois University, Macomb, IL, United States of America.
Plos One
|August 26, 2020
Summary
Real Plus Minus (RPM), a leading player value metric, is influenced by teammate quality. This study finds that RPM does not account for complementarity effects, limiting its predictive accuracy for player contributions in basketball.
Area of Science:
- Sports Analytics
- Econometrics
- Player Performance Evaluation
Background:
- Adjusted Plus Minus (APM) metrics estimate individual player contributions in team sports like basketball and hockey.
- APM measures, such as Real Plus Minus (RPM), are widely used but may not fully capture the impact of player interactions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between Real Plus Minus (RPM) and on-court teammate quality in the NBA.
- To determine if RPM adequately controls for complementarity effects among players.
Main Methods:
- Utilized NBA player-season data from 2013-2019, including Real Plus Minus (RPM) and player lineup information.
- Employed linear fixed effect regression models and a two-stage least squares (2-SLS) method to analyze RPM variations and address endogeneity.
Main Results:
- Found significant evidence that RPM is positively related to on-court teammate quality.
- Demonstrated that RPM does not fully account for complementarity effects, even after adjusting for teammate and opponent quality.
Conclusions:
- Real Plus Minus (RPM) is influenced by the quality of a player's teammates.
- The findings suggest that RPM is not suitable for out-of-sample predictions due to its failure to control for complementarity effects.