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The bounded rationality of probability distortion.

Hang Zhang1,2,3,4, Xiangjuan Ren5,3, Laurence T Maloney6,7

  • 1School of Psychological and Cognitive Sciences and Beijing Key Laboratory of Behavior and Mental Health, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China; hang.zhang@pku.edu.cn.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
|August 27, 2020
PubMed
Summary

People systematically distort probability and relative frequency information. A new bounded log-odds (BLO) model explains these distortions in decision making under risk (DMR) and judgments of relative frequency (JRF).

Keywords:
Bayesian inferencedecision under riskefficient codingfrequency judgmentmutual information

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Area of Science:

  • Cognitive psychology
  • Decision science
  • Behavioral economics

Background:

  • Human decision-making often deviates from objective probabilities and relative frequencies.
  • These systematic distortions impact performance across various tasks, raising questions about their underlying mechanisms.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose and validate a novel model explaining systematic distortions in probability and relative frequency judgments.
  • To investigate the cognitive processes governing decision making under risk (DMR) and judgments of relative frequency (JRF).

Main Methods:

  • Developed a bounded log-odds (BLO) model incorporating log-odds scaling, dynamic range boundedness, and variance compensation.
  • Compared the BLO model against 11 alternative models using factorial model comparison in DMR and JRF tasks.
  • Analyzed individual participant data to assess model fit within the DMR literature.

Main Results:

  • The BLO model and its core assumptions significantly outperformed all alternative models.
  • BLO demonstrated superior accuracy in explaining individual participants' data compared to previous models in DMR.
  • Distortions approximated a maximization of mutual information, indicating bounded rationality.

Conclusions:

  • The bounded log-odds model provides a robust explanation for systematic distortions in probability and relative frequency processing.
  • Human decision-making under risk and frequency judgments exhibit characteristics of bounded rationality, adapting to task demands within cognitive limitations.