[Predictive value of N-terminal B-type natriuretic peptide on outcome of elderly hospitalized non-heart failure patients]

Objective: To investigate the predictive value of N-terminal type B natriuretic peptide（NT-proBNP) on the prognosis of elderly hospitalized patients without heart failure（non-heart failure). Method: Elderly patients aged 65 years or older, who were admitted to Beijing Hospital from September 2018 to February 2019, were enrolled in this study. Patients with clinical diagnosis of heart failure or left ventricular ejection fraction（LVEF)<50% were excluded. The patients were divided into 2 groups based on the serum NT-proBNP level: low NT-proBNP group （<125 ng/L) and high NT-proBNP group（≥125 ng/L). Patients were followed up at 3, 6, and 12 months after enrollment, and the major adverse events were recorded. The composite endpoint events included all-cause mortality, readmission or Emergency Department visits. Cardiovascular events include death, readmission or emergency room treatment due to cardiogenic shock, myocardial infarction, angina pectoris, arrhythmia, heart failure or stroke/transient ischemic attack. Results: A total of 600 elderly patients with non-heart failure were included in the analysis. The average age was （74.9±6.5) years, including 304（50.7%) males. The median follow-up time was 344（265, 359) days. One hundred and seventy-eight（29.7%) composite endpoint events were recorded during the follow-up, 19（3.2%) patients died, and 12（2.0%) patients were lost to follow-up. There were 286(47.7%) cases in low NT-proBNP group and 314 cases（52.3%) in high NT-proBNP group. Patients were older, prevalence of atrial fibrillation and myocardial infarction was higher; MMSE scores and ADL scores, albumin and creatinine clearance rate were lower in high NT-proBNP group than in low NT-proBNP group（all P<0.05). At 1-year follow-up, the incidence of composite endpoint events was significantly higher in high NT-proBNP group than in low NT-proBNP group（33.4%（105/314) vs. 24.8%（71/286), P = 0.02). Cardiovascular events were more common in high NT-proBNP group than in low NT-proBNP group（17.5%（55/314) vs. 8.4%（24/286), P = 0.001). Kaplan-Meier survival analysis showed both composite endpoint events（Log-rank P=0.016) and cardiovascular events（Log-rank P=0.001) were higher in high NT-proBNP group than in low NT-proBNP group. All-cause mortality was also significantly higher in highNT-proBNP group than in lowNT-proBNP group（4.8%（15/314) vs. 1.4%（4/286), P = 0.020), and Kaplan-Meier survival analysis demonstrated borderline statistical significance（Log-rank P = 0.052). Cox proportional hazard regression analysis showed that after adjusting for age, sex, creatinine clearance rate, myocardial infarction, and atrial fibrillation, NT-proBNP remained as an independent risk factor for composite endpoint events（HR=1.376，95%CI 1.049-1.806, P=0.021), and cardiovascular events（HR=1.777, 95%CI 1.185-2.664, P=0.005), but not for all-cause mortality（P=0.206). Conclusions: NT-proBNP level at admission has important predictive value on rehospitalization and cardiovascular events for hospitalized elderly non-heart failure patients. NT-proBNP examination is helpful for risk stratification in this patient cohort.