Generalizing a predictor of male alcoholic treatment outcomes

A predictive index was developed using 34 intake variables from 416 alcoholic inpatient program participants at a Veterans Administration Medical Center (VAMC). Using drinking behavior as the outcome criteria, an R-squared value of 0.562 was achieved and 65% of the index-generating sample was correctly classified. The index was cross-validated on 61 inpatients at 4 months posttreatment. It achieved a point biserial correlation of 0.389 and correctly classified 66% of the sample. The index, unprecedentedly, was generalized to three other VAMCs and achieved an overall r of 0.393 and correctly classified 61% of the generalization subjects.