Contribution of Offshore Wind to the Power Grid: U.S. Air Quality Implications

Offshore wind is an established technology in Europe and Asia, but it has not yet gained market share in the United States. There is, however, increasing interest in offshore wind development in many coastal regions of the United States. As offshore wind grows in those regions it will displace existing and future electric generation assets, which will lead to changes in the emissions from the electric power sector. This research explores combinations of two electric sector drivers, offshore wind capital costs and carbon dioxide (CO₂) caps, to measure the changes in the energy mix and quantify offshore wind's impact on electric sector emissions. An energy system modeling approach is applied, using a nested parametric sensitivity analysis, to generate and explore potential energy futures and analyze the air quality and greenhouse gas emissions benefits of offshore wind as an energy source. The analysis shows that offshore wind capacity was added due to cost reductions more than CO₂ cap stringency, though both increased capacity additions. Capacity varied more by CO₂ cap stringency at higher prices and less at lower prices. CO₂ mitigation led to reductions in all five emissions investigated, regardless of offshore wind cost. Offshore wind-specific reductions were only consistent across all CO₂ caps for CO₂ and methane (CH₄), though offshore wind-specific reductions were found for all emissions in the absence of CO₂ caps. Results are presented nationally, analyzing the differences in adoption of offshore wind and how this technology provides a broader range of emission reduction options for the power sector.