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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Dec 10, 2025

Resurrection of Dormant Daphnia magna: Protocol and Applications
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Adapt or Perish: Evolutionary Rescue in a Gradually Deteriorating Environment.

Loïc Marrec1, Anne-Florence Bitbol2,3

  • 1Sorbonne Université, CNRS, Institut de Biologie Paris-Seine, Laboratoire Jean Perrin (UMR 8237), 75005 Paris, France.

Genetics
|August 29, 2020
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Summary

Evolutionary rescue occurs when beneficial mutations arise and spread in a declining environment. Later-appearing mutants have a higher chance of saving microbial populations from extinction.

Keywords:
adaptationdeteriorating environmentevolutionary rescuevariable fitnessvariable population size

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Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Microbial genetics
  • Population dynamics

Background:

  • Populations face extinction in deteriorating environments.
  • Survival depends on the emergence and fixation of adapted mutants.
  • Understanding rescue dynamics is crucial for predicting population fate.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate the evolutionary rescue of microbial populations under gradual environmental decline.
  • To determine factors influencing the probability of population rescue.
  • To analyze the timing of beneficial mutations and population extinction.

Main Methods:

  • Analytical calculations
  • Stochastic simulations
  • Modeling various adaptive mutant types (specialist, generalist, antimicrobial resistance)
  • Analysis in the weak-to-moderate mutation regime

Main Results:

  • Mutants appearing later in environmental deterioration have a higher fixation probability.
  • Rescue probability shows a sigmoidal increase with carrying capacity and mutation probability.
  • Slower environmental degradation favors rescue in smaller populations or with lower mutation rates.
  • Conclusions are robust across different mutant types.

Conclusions:

  • The speed of environmental change critically impacts population survival.
  • Population size, mutation rate, and environmental degradation rate are key factors in evolutionary rescue.
  • The study provides a framework applicable to various scenarios of changing fitness and population size.