Assessing the serum chymase level as an early predictor of dengue severity

We conducted a prospective, observational study to assess the serum chymase level, a mast cell derived protease, as a predictor of dengue severity. NS1-positive non-severe dengue patients of age ≥14 years with duration of fever ≤4 days were included in the study. At the time of admission, the serum sample was taken for chymase estimation. Patients were followed up to four days after they became afebrile to find out the final diagnosis. Total of 338 non-severe dengue patients were recruited (mean age: 29.15 years; male: 66%). On follow-up, 26 patients (7.8%) developed severe dengue. Only chymase level (adjusted odds ratio [aOR]: 1.787; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.309-2.440) and platelet count at admission (aOR: 0.981; 95% CI: 0.968-0.993) were able to predict the severity after adjustment for all variables. But, for prediction of severe dengue, the area under receiver's operating curve of chymase was 0.835 (95% CI: 0.765-0.905), which was significantly higher than that of the platelet count at admission (0.760, 95% CI: 0.650-0.870) (p < .001). Patients who developed severe dengue in due course of illness had significantly higher serum chymase level at admission as compared with the rest of the patients. Similar findings were noted across all age-groups. At an optimum cut-off value of 1.35 ng/ml, chymase had a positive likelihood ratio (LR) of 3.5 and a negative LR of 0.15, for predicting severe dengue. This study demonstrated the potential ability of serum chymase levels at admission, as a biomarker for prediction of severe dengue in due course of illness.