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Do managed exchange rates and monetary sterilization encourage capital inflows?
Vandana Arya1, Tony Cavoli1, Ilke Onur1
1UniSA Business School, University of South Australia, Adelaide, Australia.
Plos One
|August 29, 2020
Summary
Economies with fixed exchange rates attract more capital inflows, especially when foreign exchange interventions are sterilized. This combination boosts investment, with effects varying by region and inflow size.
Area of Science:
- Economics
- International Finance
- Macroeconomics
Background:
- Exchange rate pegs can influence capital flows through reduced transaction costs and interest rate differentials.
- Sterilized foreign exchange interventions aim to maintain interest differentials, potentially attracting investment.
Purpose of the Study:
- To examine the relationship between exchange rate fixity, sterilized intervention, and capital inflows (FDI, portfolio, bank) in emerging markets.
- To determine if the combined effect of exchange rate fixity and sterilized intervention is greater than their individual impacts.
- To analyze regional variations and the magnitude of these effects on different scales of capital inflows.
Main Methods:
- Empirical analysis of capital inflow data for 28 emerging market economies.
- Statistical examination of the impact of exchange rate peg 'fixity' on capital flows.
- Assessment of the role of sterilized foreign exchange interventions in attracting investment.
Main Results:
- Greater exchange rate fixity is associated with increased capital inflows.
- Sterilized foreign exchange interventions positively influence capital inflows.
- The combined effect of exchange rate fixity and sterilized intervention is synergistic, leading to magnified inflows.
- Regional differences in the impact of these policies were observed.
- The effect of exchange rate policies on capital inflows is more pronounced for larger inflow volumes.
Conclusions:
- Fixed exchange rates and sterilized interventions are effective tools for attracting capital inflows to emerging economies.
- The synergistic effect of combining these policies offers a potent strategy for enhancing investment.
- Policymakers should consider regional specificities and the scale of desired inflows when implementing exchange rate and intervention strategies.
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