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Impact assessment of containment measure against COVID-19 spread in Morocco
Aayah Hammoumi1, Redouane Qesmi2
1Department of Biology, Cadi Ayyad University, Semlalia, Marrakech 40000, Morocco.
Abstract:
Since the appearance of the first case of COVID-19 in Morocco on March, 02, 2020, the cumulative number of reported infectious cases continues to increase and, up to date, the peak-time of infection is not reached yet. In this study, we propose a Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infectious deterministic model to evaluate the impact of compulsory containment imposed in Morocco on March, 21 on the spread of COVID-19 epidemic across the country. The model takes account of the unconfined individuals that continue to work or to leave their home for urgent needs and the existence of infectious asymptomatic and unreported individuals within susceptible population. Furthermore, the model is able to predict the peak-size, peak-time, final size and epidemic duration according to different rates of containment. Advanced knowledge of these details will be of great interest to establish an optimal plan-of-action to control or eradicate the epidemic. Indeed, mitigating and delaying the epidemic peak allow the official health authorities to anticipate and control the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, prediction of the epidemic duration can help the government to predict the end time of containment to avoid consequent social-economic damages as well. Using our model, the basic reproduction number R 0 is estimated to be 2.9949, with reflecting a high speed of spread of the epidemic. The model shows that the compulsory containment can be efficient if more than 73% of population are confined. In the absence of other efficient measure of control, even with 90% of containment, the end-time is estimated to happen on July, 4, 2020 with 7558 final cumulative cases. Furthermore, a threshold value of containment rate, below which the epidemic duration is postponed, has been determined. Finally, the sensitivity analysis is performed and showed that the COVID-19 dynamics strongly depends on the asymptomatic duration as well as the contact and containment rates. Our previsions can help the government to adjust its plan-of-action to fight the disease and to face the social-economic shock induced by the containment.
Insights
Morocco
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Public Health
Background:
- COVID-19 cases in Morocco increased rapidly post-March 2020.
- Containment measures were implemented to control the epidemic's spread.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the impact of compulsory containment on COVID-19 spread in Morocco.
- To predict epidemic parameters like peak time, size, and duration under different containment rates.
Main Methods:
- A deterministic Susceptible-Asymptomatic-Infectious (SAI) model was developed.
- The model incorporated unconfined individuals and asymptomatic/unreported cases.
- Simulations were run to assess various containment scenarios.
Main Results:
- The basic reproduction number (R0) was estimated at 2.9949, indicating rapid spread.
- Compulsory containment requires over 73% population confinement to be effective.
- 90% containment predicted an end date of July 4, 2020, with 7558 cases.
Conclusions:
- Containment effectiveness is highly dependent on the percentage of the population confined.
- COVID-19 dynamics are sensitive to asymptomatic duration, contact rates, and containment rates.
- Model predictions can inform public health strategies and mitigate socio-economic impacts.
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