The STarT Back stratified care model for nonspecific low back pain: a model-based evaluation of long-term...

The STarT Back approach comprises subgrouping patients with low back pain (LBP) according to the risk of persistent LBP-related disability, with appropriate matched treatments. In a 12-month clinical trial and implementation study, this stratified care approach was clinically and cost-effective compared with usual, nonstratified care. Despite the chronic nature of LBP and associated economic burden, model-based economic evaluations in LBP are rare and have shortcomings. This study therefore produces a de novo decision model of this stratified care approach for LBP management to estimate the long-term cost-effectiveness and address methodological concerns in LBP modelling. A cost-utility analysis from the National Health Service perspective compared stratified care with usual care in patients consulting in primary care with nonspecific LBP. A Markov state-transition model was constructed where patient prognosis over 10 years was dependent on physical function achieved at 12 months. Data from the clinical trial and implementation study provided short-term model parameters, with extrapolation using 2 cohort studies of usual care in LBP. Base-case results indicate this model of stratified care is cost-effective, delivering 0.14 additional quality-adjusted life years at a cost saving of £135.19 per patient over a time horizon of 10 years. Sensitivity analyses indicate the approach is likely to be cost-effective in all scenarios and cost saving in most. It is likely this stratified care model will help reduce unnecessary healthcare usage while improving the patient's quality of life. Although decision-analytic modelling is used in many conditions, its use has been underexplored in LBP, and this study also addresses associated methodological challenges.