The Dutch COVID-19 approach: Regional differences in a small country

This paper describes the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic in the Netherlands, including policies to reduce the health-related and economic consequences. The Netherlands started with containment and shifted to mitigation within three weeks when implementing a 'mild' lockdown. The initial focus was to obtain herd immunity while preventing Intensive Care Units from getting overwhelmed.

An in-depth analysis of available national and international COVID-19 data sources was conducted. Due to regional variation in COVID-19 hospitalization rates, this paper focuses on three distinct regions; the initial epicenter; the most northern provinces which - contrary to national policy - decided not to switch to mitigation; and the Bible Belt, as congregations of religious groups were initially excluded from the ban on group formation.

On August 11^th, 6,159 COVID-19 deaths were reported with at the peak an excess mortality Z-score of 21.7. As a result of the pandemic, the economy took a severe hit and is predicted to shrink 6.5% compared to projection. The hospitalization rates in the northern regions were over 70% lower compared to the rest of the country (18 versus 66 per 100,000 inhabitants). Differences between the Bible Belt and the rest of the country were hardly detectable.

The Dutch have shown a way to effectively slow down transmission while allowing more personal and economic freedom than most other countries. Furthermore, the regional differences suggest that containment prevented a surge of infections in the northern provinces. The results should be interpreted with caution, due to the descriptive nature of this study.